Brazil vs Japan
We’re at the sudden death stage of the World Cup 2026, and there’s a superb taster for SBOTOP football fans on Monday when Carlo Ancelotti’s Brazil take on Hajime Moriyasu’s Japan.
The NRG Stadium in Houston will be a sea of Samba Yellow and Samurai Blue, and it will be a sight to behold once the two teams take to the field. The stakes are high, and favourites Brazil know they will be in a fight against a team that has consistently made the knockout phases and has been flying the flag for Asia for decades.
Brazil won Group C after compiling seven points, and they are ahead of Morocco on goal difference. Meanwhile, the Samurai Blue made it through Group F in second place, unbeaten and drawing with the highly-rated Netherlands along the way.
The group stages are over for Brazil and Japan, and the previous World Cup 2026 results are done and dusted. Now the serious business of knockout football starts, and this will be a cracker.
Talking Points
Vinicius has found his mojo
The latest World Cup 2026 betting odds make Brazil the sixth most likely champions now behind current favourites Argentina, who are on their way to the knockouts, qualified after two games, as well as France, Spain, England, and Portugal. After drawing their opener with Morocco, the Selecao have hit form, beating both Scotland and Haiti 3-0.
While he has an embarrassment of talent in his squad, Carlo Ancelotti will be particularly delighted by the form of Real Madrid star Vinicius Jr., who has scored four goals in three games, bagging a brace against the Scots after notching against Morocco and Haiti.
After a frustrating campaign at the Santiago Bernabeu, the 25-year-old is smiling again, and he even has his eye on the Golden Boot. Vinicius is on four goals alongside Kylian Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele, and Erling Haaland, one behind Lionel Messi in the race. And scoring in three consecutive World Cup group games, he stands alongside Selecao legends Ronaldo and Rivaldo.
There has been a Premier League theme to Vinicius’ supporting cast against Scotland. Bournemouth’s 19-year-old star Rayan made the assist for the opener, while Manchester United’s Matheus Cunha scored the third goal, and Newcastle United captain Bruno Guimaraes made the other two assists. And a good night became a great one for Samba fans as Neymar, now at Santos, climbed off the bench to make an appearance after 918 days away.
Moriyasu the pragmatist
The Samurai Blue confirmed their place in the Round of 32 thanks to a 1-1 draw with Sweden last Thursday. They were pretty much there after picking up four points from two games, and when Daizen Maeda opened the scoring 10 minutes into the second half, it looked like plain sailing, but Anthony Elanga hit back quickly for the Swedes. Moriyasu reacted by making defensive changes and saw the game out.
Against the Netherlands, Japan displayed their fighting spirit, coming back twice to earn a 2-2 draw, and then they showed all their attacking prowess to take Tunisia apart with a 4-0 win. The boss rotated his team against Sweden, but the Samurai Blue still had the best of the game and justified their pre-tournament mantle of dark horses.
While Moriyasu can be pragmatic, this is no way a defensive side and Brazil will need to keep a close eye on Real Sociedad star Takefusa Kubo. The 25-year-old spent four years at the Barcelona academy, earning the nickname the “Japanese Messi,” and he will be a key player in the absence of the injured Kaoru Mitoma. Crystal Palace star Daichi Kamada and Frankfurt’s Ritsu Doan will also be a good match for the Brazil midfield.
History
The Selecao are five-time World Cup winners and are at their 23rd finals, while Japan are at their eighth World Cup finals and have reached the Round of 16 four times, including in 2018 and 2022.
These two proud nations have met on 10 occasions, with Brazil winning seven and drawing two, and the Samurai Blue have won one. But that Japan victory was the most recent meeting, a 3-2 win in October last year, as Moryasu’s men came back from a two-goal deficit.
Both teams have been strong in the run-up to the World Cup. In the group stage, the Selecao has won five and drawn one of their last six games, while Japan have won four and drawn two over that time.
Betting Tip
The Selecao are fifth in the latest FIFA World Rankings, with Japan at 17th. The pre-match odds reflect that with Brazil at 1.70 to win, Japan at 5.00, and the draw at 3.60. But this is by no means an ideal start to the knockouts for Ancelotti’s Selecao, and they will be tested to the full.
For a correct scoreline, I’d go for 2-1 to the Samba Boys at odds of 7.50. But I’m more confident of three goals or more, with four of their group matches reaching that mark, and the other two games were 1-1 draws. Either way, this will not be a match to take your eyes off.
A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR (⭐) BETS ARE WORTH:
⭐⭐⭐= €20 (HIGHLY CONFIDENT)
⭐⭐= €10 (CONFIDENT)
⭐= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT)
Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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